Last third of 2019 CFL Season proving difficult to handicap

The Lions signed former Rider draft pick offensive lineman Josiah St. John who will stand in history as Chris Jones first draft pick as GM of the Riders.

St. John was drafted by the Riders and was on the roster for three years, but other than some appearances last year, was either injured or not in shape to make a meaningful contribution.

Add to that St. John’s agent who has a history of making demands better suited to an old man returning soup in a deli., and realistically, if St. John is going to have an impact, it will be next year if he works hard on the BC practice roster and learns what is required of him and even more important, learns how to keep himself in shape.

When you watch a team implode, like Ottawa, it’s not so much the physical errors that have brought the team to this point, but the lack of mental toughness. Ottawa made a calculated decision to go with Davis after losing Trevor Harris to Edmonton, but losing Jamie Elizondo a couple of weeks before the start of the season has left Davis with no clear adult supervision until Joe Paopao took over play-calling.

Davis has been removed as the starter in favor of Jon Jennings, and well as Led Zeppelin once put it – The Song Remains the Same. Jennings was once the golden child of CFL quarterbacks until teams got enough film on Jennings to figure out how to disarm him.

It would be easy to trace Ottawa’s current woes to the inability to re-sign quarterback Trevor Harris, who was snapped up by Edmonton, but that wouldn’t be the entire story. Harris is a streaky quarterback who is good in stretches, gets great stats and somehow manages to choke in big games.

Let’s put it this way, which quarterback would you rather have – Mike Reilly of the 2-10 BC Lions or Harris of the 3-9 Redblacks? I would go with Reilly who not only leads by virtue of his arm on the field, but also sets an example with his work ethic and leadership.

Ottawa’s two biggest mistakes were alienating Elizondo to the point where he jumped ship just before the season started and then thinking Davis was the guy who could take over. I think Ottawa Head Coach Rick Campbell was prepared to go through growing pains with Davis, but probably the turning point was the Ottawa game in Saskatchewan where on three straight series, Davis threw an interception each time to stake the Riders to a 17-0 lead.

Now Ottawa has to think about whether they can realistically chase down Montreal for second place or maybe just ensure they are in a spot to draft well next season. Theoretically it is possible, but Ottawa has no leadership and until that leadership emerges from the players and makes it clear mental mistakes would not be tolerated, Ottawa will be suited to auditioning as many players as possible for next year.

Calgary managed to use a blocked field goal by Tre Roberson on the final play of the game to preserve a 19-18 win. The first half of the game was a Hamilton success story that saw Hamilton stake itself to a lead that featured solid play by their defense.

However Calgary’s defense hung in there and pressured Hamilton into turning the ball over. Hamilton’s defense was impressive in limiting Calgary capitalizing their chances and if Hamilton gets into the Grey Cup, it will be thanks to their defense since their offense is is competent but not confident.

Calgary did well in treading water under Nick Arbuckle when Bo Levi Mitchell was down with a pectoral muscle injury, and Mitchell was pretty good in routing Edmonton for two straight games. But against Hamilton, Mitchell looked competent, but maybe not confident.

When Calgary is good, they are very good and probably Grey Cup Champs for a second straight year, but Calgary also makes stupid mistakes and make their defense carry the team until the offense can figure things out.

There are no extra style points awarded to wins and losses so Calgary should be happy with the clutch win, but Calgary should not follow the example of the Riders and read their press clippings.

Hamilton has to do nothing more than tread water to finish first, but they still haven’t moved past the “Yes…but” as in, Yes Hamilton has maintained their grip on first place and instead of being an overwhelming offense, is now relying on their defense. For Dane Evans, he now has to move beyond being the merely competent to demonstrating he was lead the team in clutch situations.

Finally we have the Riders bouncing back after laying an egg in Winnipeg last week by beating Montreal in the last minute with a field goal. It was one of the more entertaining games of the year where Montreal went ahead 9-0 on field goals but the Riders fought back to take the lead.

The Riders had problems getting their offense untracked and while they didn’t make the same type of stupid penalties as they did against Winnipeg, they still made enough stupid penalties and mental errors to make the future murky at best for the team.

Montreal is probably the surprise of the year, but the Riders at this point are also a major contender for story of the year with Cody Fajardo now setting the stage for comparisons to former Rider great Ron Lancaster and his last minute winning drives. The problem is if the Riders think all they have to do is wait until the last drive of the fourth quarter to clinch a game, then they will probably lose down the road.

Montreal lost the game because in the fourth quarter, the Als scored too quickly and left enough time on the clock for the Riders to move back down the field for the winning field goal. Fajardo showed confidence in taking what Montreal gave him and word he is staying in Regina for the bye week to work with receivers and help with team building is a clear sign Fajardo is ready to apply the lessons he learned from Ricky Ray in Toronto and Travis Lulay in BC and become a regular starter.

From here on in the CFL should be featuring four games a weekend and this week we have Calgary going to Toronto. After sweeping Edmonton, Calgary looked mortal against Hamilton and with the consistent play Toronto is getting from their quarterback they

With the CFL using their Turf Traditions promotion, Toronto should be in good position to give Calgary a run for their money at the Boatyard, and one of the welcome signs is Toronto reverting to their boat logo as a sharp looking logo. With the Argos playing consistently and being competitive, the potential is there for them to play spoiler, something the Riders should be aware of next week when they head to Toronto.

That being said, there is a difference between competitive and consistent. Calgary’s defence is pretty consistent and even if Mitchell has problems moving the ball like in the first half against Hamilton, their defence is good enough to concentrate on Derel Walker and keep SJ Green and Armanti Edwards in check. If Calgary was honest, they probably underestimated the ability of Hamilton to hang with them last week, don’t expect the same complacency this week – Calgary 30-21.

Hamilton stayed in Alberta after losing to Calgary, a good way to digest the lessons that to beat the defending champions, you have to play four, not three quarters. Calgary managed to get some turnovers to get back into the game against Hamilton, but only managed field goals until the end of the game whed Hamilton was stopped by an incredible effort by Roberson.

The best way to probably describe Hamilton’s quarterbacking at this time is workmanlike. When facing a half-assed defence, Hamilton can go balls deep and hit receivers like Brandon Banks and break the resistance of weaker teams.

The problem is when teams take that away, Hamilton has to rely on a running game that is uh, more on the six game injured list than on the field. As the weather gets colder, and there is a good chance that Calgary at the end of November is colder for Grey Cup, Hamilton will have to come up with an offense that can adapt to the cold and more importantly, have a quarterback who is capable of adjusting his game.

It would be fair and accurate to say Hamilton’s defence is carrying the team right now until the offense can figure itself out, The question is what will they face in the Edmonton Eskimos? The Eskimos are caught between finishing fourth and crossing over and likely losing to Montreal and then trying to move up in the west.

The problem is since Harris is such a streaky passer, you never know which one is going to show up and if you have a good defense, then you can stop Harris and make Edmonton as impotent as one of Jason Maas’ sideline tantrums.

Hamilton has done well in Edmonton the last few years. I see no reason what that would stop now. Hamilton 25-22.

Then we have Winnipeg at Montreal and this will be one of the more interesting games. Winnipeg is now prepping their parade route after spanking the Riders at the Banjo Bowl and now feel with the return of Andrew (Juicer) Harris, the stage is set to finally wipe away 29 years of frustration.

It will be an interesting game because when Montreal came to Saskatchewan, I wouldn’t have been surprised at a Montreal win because Khari Jones has this team operating at a level where they believe in each other. Montreal has a solid defense and with Vernon Adams Jr. Montreal has a young mobile quarterback who makes better reads than Chris (the Shriveller) Streveler.

I am not sure how Winnipeg’s defence will respond to a more mobile quarterback and a receiving corps that will also feature former Bomber Chris Matthews. His knowledge of the Winnipeg offense may pay off for Montreal, but until the gun sounds, the onus is on Montreal to prove it is for real.

Again, I would not be surprised if Montreal wins, but in the meantime, you have to go with Winnipeg and say a 27-21 win.

Finally we have a repeat of the BC –Ottawa home and home where dozens of Redblack fans are wondering what happened to the magic? The Riders took a gamble on Cody Fajardo and so far it has paid off. Ottawa took a gamble on Dominque Davis and Jon Jennings and crapped out.

The difference in this game will be keeping Mike Reilly upright. And don’t forget Mike Reilly has a kiler instinct when he isn’t being buried under the rush of angry defensive linemen. That is something Ottawa doesn’t have and desperately needs – a leader.

BC wins 25-23.

by Greg Urbanoski

Last third of 2019 CFL Season proving difficult to handicap

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