Déjà vu all over again in CFL Playoffs

Calgary was not sure whether Streveler would try to pass the ball, and to be honest, Tim Tebow is a better passer than Streveler, but they had to consider the possibility and the result was Collaros managed to get the ball deep while Streveler gave Calgary just enough of a moment of hesitation to be the leading rusher for Winnipeg.

So Winnipeg comes into Saskatchewan on a high, believing all they have to do is show up and beat the Riders, who may or may not have Cody Fajardo starting at quarterback. Bomber fans have been talking all season about how lucky the Riders are to face teams who have either lost their quarterbacks or something like that and taking advantage of those opportunities to have a 13 win season.

The implication is that the Riders have not deserved to finish first, and the Bombers by going to Calgary and beating the team who beat them in the western final last year, have begun to exorcize the ghosts that keep #1990 one of the more popular tags in sports social media.

They may have a point. The Riders in closing out their schedule have shown a tendency to play at the level of their opponents instead of imposing their will. Their final season series against the Edmonton Eskimos, where the Riders needed to win to clinch first, were noted for Edmonton resting starters in the last game in preparation for the eastern semi-final, allowing the Riders to somehow emerge with a 23-13 win under b ack-up Isaac Harker.

With Fajordo sitting out that game with an oblique injury, the severity of which won’t be known until kickoff on Sunday, the Riders resorted to relying on back-up Harker to lead the team, with more than a capable assist from their defense. For Rider fans, this had the feeling of last year when Collaros was knocked out of the final game of the year and for the western final, the Riders were forced to rely on Brandon Bridge who showed on that day, that if he did not have a clear read, he panicked and ran and the Riders had no way to sustain an offense that would have sent them last year to the western final.

Except while the Riders had a talented defense last year they relied on to make up for a popgun offense, this year there is more balance to the team and while the team may not be as effective as it might be with Fajardo, it is also not as bad as it was under Bridge.

The question is whether Winnipeg is as good as their performance indicated against Calgary. While Collaros is better than any of Winnipeg’s quarterbacks, including Matt Nichols, Collaros has a tendency to want to force the ball into spots where perhaps it might not be advisable. Add to this Collaros’ glass jaw and the fact is Winnipeg is one hit away from putting their Grey Cup hopes into the hands of a one legged quarterback.

Winnipeg also doesn’t have a receiving corps that inspires much fear, so if the Riders can keep contain on the Bomber receivers, the only possible offense look that would give me pause would be if Collaros took quarterback snaps with Andrew Harris and Streveler in the backfield and Streveler might be a threat to either run or throw the occasional lob up pass to take a defense out of its comfort zone.

That is a look I am expecting on Sunday from Winnipeg on offense. That would be something as yet unseen and the unexpectedness of it would be consistent with Mike O’Shea trying stuff like this on special teams and the like.

On defense Winnipeg intercepted Bo Levi Mitchell three times – a tribute to not just their defense, but to how offensive Calgary’s receivers truly were. The lack of continuity in the Calgary receiving corps had receivers run patterns that may or not have been called by the quarterback and the result was inevitable.

The question mark on the Bombers defense is coming from Willie Jefferson, the western nominee for defensive player of the year, but a guy who has been notable by his absence for the last few games. Jefferson has the size and ability to make things difficult for opposing offenses, but teams seem to be figuring out ways of scheming around him and mitigating the influence he has on the game.

Anthony Gaitor walked off the Bombers before the western semi-final after he was being asked to change positions as presumably part of scheming to give the Bomber defense a different look for the Stamps. The Bombers would have played more zone defense with enough of a man look to force Mitchell to sit in the pocket and wait for plays to unfold.

Unfortunately for him, the playbook he and his receivers on were not the same and the Bombers benefitted.

So while Winnipeg can be said to have the momentum after beating Calgary, one wonders whether the team considers the western final and the Grey Cup to be merely afterthoughts. This was one possibility Rider analyst Luc Mullinder floated on Monday, noting some teams invest so much emotional energy into beating a particular opponent in a divisional playoff game, they lose sight of the fact they have more more playoff games to win.

I would expect if Harker starts for the Riders on Sunday, Winnipeg will alternate blitzes with zone defenses to throw Harker off and force him to beat the Bombers with his arm, much as they forced Bridge last year to try to beat the Bombers with his arm. So while the forecast is ranging anywhere from four to seven degrees on Sunday with a chance of showers, I am not anticipating a repeat of the western semi-final – either last year’s or last week.

This is game that is a toss-up because each team while solid, has their “yes, but” moments and while both teams will be looking to focus on preventing the other team from running the ball effectively, it will force them to work on passing the ball and the conditions at least at this time will indicate that part of the game will be more viable than it was last Sunday.

I have been taping Riders games since 2014 because while I am on the treadmill, I find it fun to watch previous Rider games just to note trends and to get a sense of how opponents have responded to the Riders and vice versa.

For this game I referred back to a game in 2017 when Collaros lead Hamilton into Mosaic Stadium for the first time against the Riders. Collaros went 19/34 for 189 yards and one touchdown as the Riders beat Hamilton 37-20.

This pitted the Hamilton offense of the time against the Riders defense led by Chris Jones, but who also has Jason Shivers in as the defensive secondary coach. Shivers now leads the Riders defense and if anyone wants an inkling of how Collaros’ would look against the Rider defense, this game is an excellent primer.

I am going to assume the Riders and the Bombers will go with tandems at quarterback – depending on how Fajardo is doing, he may be used judiciously, like in the first and fourth quarters, or maybe there will be specific packages. If Fajardo pulls out what I would call the Willis Reed experience (Reed was a star basketball player with the New York Knicks in the early 1970s who in one championship series was so injured he was limited to a short appearance in the final game, but it was so emotionally uplifitng to his teammates, they were inspired to clinch a rare title for the Knicks) it will be interesting to see the effect on the team and the fans.

For Fajardo, signing a new long term contract and finally being the starter carries with it some responsibilities and one of them of being a franchise quarterback is being out there for the team when he is most needed. Fajardo has four game winning drives for the Riders this season and the team believes in him. Winning this game would cement the feeling Fajordo is the real thing, rather than the second coming of say, Casey Printers or Jon Jennings.

At the beginning of the year I made the prediction of a Hamilton-Saskatchewan Grey Cup. For Sunday’s western final, I suspect the Riders will win 37-30 because when it comes to the playoffs, anything can happen.

I have been feeling kind of cocky after going two for two in last weekends’ games, picking Edmonton and Winnipeg to win. Winnipeg was bit of risky proposition but the weather forecast and the whole 2013 western final when Hall orchestrated the demolition of the Calgary receiving corps was still fresh in my mind.

What was ironic is that previous to last weekend, both Mike O’Shea and Jason Maas were two coaches said to be on their way out of their respective teams. Maas was being mentioned as a successor to DeVone Claybrooks, who was booted from BC for conducting a player friendly locker room where accountability was not really on the white board.

If Maas was going to maintain his job in Edmonton, he had to win out or at least get to the eastern final and riding a near record performance of Trevor Harris, Edmonton got into a rhythm with Harris throwing that Montreal could not break, especially with a defense that did not mount much of a rush against him.

The funny thing about all of this was while Maas was whispered to be en route to BC following what was expected to be a loss against Montreal, BC decided to start looking for a new coach by requesting permission to interview former Ottawa coach Rick Campbell, who parted ways after presumably figuring out that Marcel Desjardins as GM had no eye for talent or management.

Campbell was said to be the likely replacement for Maas, considering his ties to Edmonton and the fact Edmonton old guard fans felt Campbell understood the “Eskimo Way” including how to win with discipline, something Maas has had problems with.

So the game plan Edmonton unleashed against Montreal played right into how Montreal tried to defend by relying more on the coverage skills of their defensive backfield than trying to disrupt Harris’ timing at the line of scrimmage. I kind of doubt Hamilton will make that same mistake.

The interesting thing and where I think this game will be decided will be with the Edmonton defensive line putting pressure on Hamilton quarterback Dane Evans. Evans has done pretty well replacing the injured Jeremiah Masoli, leading to speculation that Hamilton will let Masoli go after this season for the cheaper and presumably healthier Evans.

Hamilton has the receivers who can give anyone fits in trying to cover them. The trick is getting to Evans before he completes passes. Edmonton was tied with Saskatchewan with 56 sacks and Hamilton was not far behind with 54 sacks. What is interesting is Hamilton gave up 37 sacks, fourth worst in the league, while Edmonton gave up only 25, best in the league and again underlying that Harris getting rid of the ball quickly is essential to Edmonton succeeding or not.

Hamilton finished third in defensive stats in recording 22 interceptions, while Edmonton was 8^th with 15. Edmonton can make a case injuries have reduced their defensive backfield to misfits and couch potatoes, but it is clear that if Hamilton has the time to pass, they can move the ball on Edmonton while Edmonton will have to dink and dunk their way down the field to eat up time and keep Hamilton’s explosive offense off the field.

The weather so far indicates above freezing temperatures although wind might be a bit of a factor and that may factor into strategy such as how to move the ball when moving against the wind. The longer Edmonton can keep Hamilton’s offense off the field, the greater their chances of winning this game. The problem is if Hamilton can protect Evans and he has time to move the ball downfield, Hamilton has the weapons and Edmonton doesn’t have the means, to slow them down.

Hamilton will win this one 27-20 setting up the Grey Cup and fulfilling my preseason prediction……

I hope.

by Greg Urbanoski

Déjà vu all over again in CFL Playoffs

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