By Clark Stork

‘Near normal’ weather patterns expected: Meteorologist

Feb 8, 2018 | 4:15 PM

Producers in Northeast Saskatchewan can expect a “good growing” season when it comes to the forecast.

World Weather Inc. meteorologist Drew Lerner provided positive news for farm industry attendees at the Northeast branch of the Saskatchewan Institute of Agrologists’ Ag Update event in Melfort on Thursday. The Kansas-based forecaster is nearing 40 years predicting weather across North America. He presented his 2018 outlook for the prairies including the Melfort region. He predicts a “cooler and dry spring” but the ground moisture will support any lack of rainfall early on. Lerner said the Northeast will also dodge most severe storms in July and August.

“A very unstable atmosphere is likely to evolve and bring moisture up from the United States. You’re not going to have a lot of heat so that may help limit the severe storms,” he said.

Maps presented by Lerner showed both spring and summer weather patterns, across the Northeast field conditions “will improve” with “frequent rainfall” expected in July and August in the summer forecast chart. Lerner said predicting the weather across the prairies has changed with heavy fluctuations year-round.

“The springs are no longer steady as she goes. You end up with a big insurgence of cold and then excessive moisture then dry and hot. We’re just bouncing all over the board, there’s so much volatility,” Lerner said.

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Lerner explained his science of weather prediction prior to delivering the outlook for the year. A current El Nina that Lerner predicts will last three more months and ocean water temperatures are a pair of key factors. Periodic cycles are another tool Lerner uses. An 18-year rotation was his primary example during the presentation.

Lerner summarized his discussion noting within the next three months no major weather events are expected to cause any ripples in the oilseed markets and the Melfort region shows optimistic signs for area producers in 2018.

Clark.stork@jpbg.ca

On Twitter: @ClarkStork