Inflation expected to jump in March as Iran oil shock enters price data

OTTAWA — Statistics Canada will reveal the early impacts of the Iran war’s oil price shock on inflation when the agency reports its consumer price index for March on Monday.

The price of oil has surged in recent weeks after Iran responded to attacks by the United States and Israel by shuttering the Strait of Hormuz where a fifth of the world’s fuel normally transits.

RBC senior economist Claire Fan says the bank expects rising prices at the pumps will push the headline inflation rate to 2.5 per cent in March, up from 1.8 per cent in February.

She says that jump would be even higher, but the removal last year of the consumer carbon price is still taking some steam out of the annual inflation comparisons.