‘A real eye-opener’: Super El Niño could bring historic warmth, drought risk to Sask.

The more intense event usually occurs once every 10 or 20 years, with the last one happening in late 2015 through early 2016.

“What’s very interesting and possibly extraordinary about the El Niño that’s developing now is that forecasts are showing that it appears likely to exceed any event that’s been witnessed for at least 100 years in its intensity,” Merryfield said. “The models are indicating that peak warming down by the equator in the Pacific possibly exceeding 3 C by a large margin, maybe even 4 C.”

The El Niño is still building, Merryfield said, and is expected to peak around December, though with the intensity of this event it could be a little earlier than normal.

“It’s pretty much a sure thing now that there will be a very strong El Niño, that it’s just a matter of how far into this historic territory it gets.”

Merryfield said the higher ocean surface temperature has a major impact on the atmosphere, which causes shifts in weather patterns and seasonal climate worldwide.

What does it mean for the Prairies?

The effects on Canada will likely kick in toward the end of 2026 or slightly earlier, depending on El Niño’s impacts on atmospheric circulation.

“The most reliable impact on Canada is to have warmer-than-usual winters,” Merryfield said.

He explained that for the so-called Super El Niño events, the mild winter could affect most of Canada. In the last two strongest El Niños, in 2015-16 and 1997-98, Saskatchewan was experiencing winter temperatures about 5 to 6 C above historical norms. Many would welcome a very mild winter, but Merryfield said that would not include some outdoor enthusiasts who enjoy and rely on frozen lakes and rivers.

While not as certain as the warmer weather, the trend in Super El Niños is for the Prairie provinces to experience a lower-than-normal snowpack.

Merryfield said that the mild temperatures often persist into the spring in Western Canada that could lead to dry conditions for vegetation going into the spring and summer.

“That could be a trigger for drought and intense wildfire activity, unless we get a good amount of rainfall next spring and summer.”

The Super El Niño may have a significant effect on Saskatchewan’s winter and spring in the coming months, but it pales in comparison to those areas closer to the equator. Merryfield said the most destructive effects of the phenomenon occur in tropical regions, especially areas surrounding the Pacific Ocean where the temperatures change dramatically.

Southeast Asia is already experiencing intense droughts and wildfires in areas like Indonesia, while Central America is also seeing drought, affecting crops and causing changes in the ways that the Panama Canal operates, with an expected shortage of fresh water in the coming months. Meanwhile, other regions are experiencing intense rainfall, with coastal regions of Ecuador and Peru experiencing significant flooding in past El Niño events.

Merryfield said seasonal forecasts have been useful in predicting El Niños and La Niñas many months prior to the arrival of the events themselves. He added that in Canada, they have used computers to see how well they re-create the conditions observed, and they predicted the Super El Niños quite accurately.

Because the conditions have been observed building up to the upcoming El Niño, Merryfield said it has been a real ‘eye opener’.

“It is a little bit shocking, or it will be shocking, if the event is as off-the-charts as the forecast models are predicting right now.”

He added that El Niño tends to release tremendous heat into the atmosphere, and that means temperatures will climb dramatically in 2027.

“It’s appearing quite likely now that the average global temperature next year in 2027 will set a new record, possibly by quite a large margin.”

The previous record was set in 2024, following a much lesser El Niño.

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cam.lee@pattisonmedia.com

by Cam Lee

‘A real eye-opener’: Super El Niño could bring historic warmth, drought risk to Sask.

What does it mean for the Prairies?

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